Does Home Field Advantage Truly Matter?
I love this topic and consider it extremely relevant, as we are in full playoff mode for Football and soon March Madness, NBA, and NHL. In my opinion, there is nothing that matters more than playing at home in the playoffs. It is one of the only incentives left for professionals to play in “meaningless” regular-season games. Home-Field Advantage can win you not only games, but playoff games.
| Sport | Regular Season Home Win % (Approx.) | Playoff Home Win % (Approx.) |
|---|---|---|
| NBA (Basketball) | 54-58% (declining from ~59% in 2012 to ~52-56% in recent years) | ~60% (e.g., 60.7% since 2013; 60% in 2025 playoffs) |
| NFL (Football) | 53-55% (e.g., .533 in 2024 season) | 70-77% (e.g., 77.1% post-COVID; home teams 10-2 in recent conference championships) |
| MLB (Baseball) | ~54% | 48-50% (e.g., 60-64 record since 2022 expansion; 69% for World Series hosts overall but 19-21 in Game 7s) |
| NHL (Hockey) | ~59% | 60-68% (e.g., 67.7% in 2025 playoffs) |
Does it matter? Yes, unequivocally—home teams win over 50% of playoff games in most sports. See, in football, in a one-off matchup, home field is of the utmost importance. Now another piece to home-field advantage (in football)? The weather. I fear that with the new wave of stadium construction in the NFL, we will be stripped of the coveted “weather games.”
Now, in basketball, “home court” may not be as big of an advantage. Why? Home advantages have eroded slightly in the modern era. (NBA down ~5% over two decades). This is slight speculation, but better travel, analytics, and talent have reduced home “biases”. Now NBA playoffs is where this gets tested, because in basketball, they use a series system with round-specific dynamics impacting every game. A prime example of this was Lebron James and the 2018 Cleveland Cavaliers securing the 5 seed in the East. During that run, they played the 4-seed Pacers, 1-seed Raptors, and 2-seed Celtics all without home court. The result? A tenth straight finals trip for Lebron, so does home “court” truly matter, or is home “field” more important?
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